Evidence as of October 14, 2026. Every figure is attributed to the named person or organisation with the date the packet records. We state each party's position as that party states it, show factual disputes as disputes, and endorse neither party. Check the dates. Not voting advice.
The United States votes on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Below are the seven issues voters rank highest, with each party's stated position beside the other's. Watch the video record for the same material with four original-audio excerpts from the speakers' own official channels, two Republican and two Democratic.
The order is the voters'. The anchor is a Pew Research Center survey of registered voters, fielded September 28 to October 4 and published October 8, 2026, asking how important each issue is to their vote: the economy ranks first at 84%, and first among both parties' supporters. Pew was corroborated against Gallup, the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, Marquette and New York Times/Siena College polling. Education and energy ranked just outside.
The seven issues, side by side
| Issue | Premise both accept | Republicans, as stated | Democrats, as stated |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Economy, cost of living | Both claim affordability | The 2025 tax law — no tax on tips or overtime — is the relief | The tariffs are a hidden tax, to be reversed |
| 2. Democracy, election integrity | Only citizens should vote | "Election integrity": proof of citizenship and roll reviews — Executive Order 14248, the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act | "A power grab"; the Freedom to Vote and John Lewis Acts |
| 3. Health care | Both want lower health costs | Health savings accounts, an anti-fraud revival, Medicaid work requirements | Extend the enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits, expired end-2025 |
| 4. Immigration, the border | Both call the border a problem | Enforcement: Laken Riley, the Secure America Act's ~$70bn | Reforms first: a judicial warrant, no deporting US citizens, visible officer ID |
| 5. Foreign policy | Both passed the Russia and Iran sanctions, 86-11 | Arm allies, pressure Moscow; hawkish on China | Pro-aid on Ukraine; most divided on Israel and Gaza |
| 6. Crime, public safety | Homicides have fallen since 2022 | The District of Columbia emergency order, the National Guard, cash bail | The deployments are "political theatre"; press gun safety |
| 7. Taxes, deficit, budget | Even the pro-growth scorekeeper finds it widens the deficit | Pro-growth relief plus $1.5tn+ in cuts; no deficit increase | Deficit-financed and skewed to the top |
Issue two is the same measures under two names. Hans von Spakovsky of the Heritage Foundation argues non-citizen registration dilutes citizens' votes; the Brennan Center found about 30 suspected non-citizen votes out of 23.5 million across 42 jurisdictions in 2016 and estimates some 21 million citizens lack ready proof-of-citizenship documents. The SAVE Act passed the House 220-208 and has sat in the Senate since April 10, 2025; two federal courts blocked key parts of Executive Order 14248.
Issue one: the cost of living, and who pays for tariffs
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) put the Republican case on the floor on August 4, 2026, on what Republicans call the Working Families Tax Cuts law: more than 29 million workers could deduct overtime pay, more than 7.5 million deducted tips, and refunds were up. Fox News reported the administration pointing to inflation holding at 2.7%.
Semafor reported on September 2, 2026 that Democrats had made the midterms about lower costs; their charge is that the tariffs are a hidden consumer tax. The Joint Economic Committee Democrats, via the Associated Press, put the cost at about $2,512 a family a year, up from $1,745. The administration's answer is that foreign exporters pay. We do not settle that. One part is settled: the Supreme Court ended the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by 6-3, as a February 2026 Skadden analysis records.
Issue three: the expired health credits
KFF, the Kaiser Family Foundation, estimates that the average subsidised premium payment would more than double next year if the enhanced ACA credits stay expired; the video record gives $888 rising to $1,904. The Urban Institute projects about four million more people uninsured.
Republicans prefer expanded health savings accounts and a narrowed, fraud-focused revival, plus the 2025 law's Medicaid work requirements. Brian Blase of the Paragon Health Institute argues the enhanced credits invite what he calls phantom enrollees, citing subsidised plans with no medical claims rising from 19% to 35%. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) scored the Medicaid changes at $1tn or more in reduced spending and about 10 to 12 million more uninsured. Both sides state the same goal and split on the credits and on how much enrolment is real.
Issue seven: the most contested law of this Congress
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act began as House Resolution 1 and became Public Law 119-21. Fox 5 DC recorded the votes: 218-214 in the House, 51-50 in the Senate on the Vice President's tie-break. Republicans call it pro-growth relief with more than $1.5tn in offsetting cuts, and the White House argued it would not raise the deficit. Democrats call it deficit-financed and skewed to the top; the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy puts the top 1% at about $121bn in 2026, roughly $66,000 each, with the lowest fifth losing once Medicaid and food-aid cuts count.
The scorekeepers' range runs against the "no increase" claim. CBO's conventional estimate is $2.4tn to $3.4tn added; the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget puts it near $2.5tn to $3.1tn; the right-leaning Tax Foundation's dynamic score finds the law lifts long-run output about 1.2% and still adds roughly $3tn. The same committee reported CBO's estimate of a $2.0tn deficit for fiscal 2026.
Where the record shows agreement
The Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act became Public Law 119-111 on September 18, 2026 by 86-11 in the Senate and 262-159 in the House; the video pairs Senator Thune with Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), the Senate Foreign Relations Committee's ranking Democrat, on that same bill. The HALT Fentanyl Act, which permanently schedules fentanyl-related drugs, became Public Law 119-26 on July 16, 2025, and the Laken Riley Act, mandatory detention for certain charges, became Public Law 119-1 on January 29, 2025 with a dozen Senate Democratic votes. The party-line record cuts both ways: the Secure America Act became Public Law 119-98 by 52-47 and 214-212, Senator Dick Durbin's (D-IL) Dreamers amendment failed 48-51, and a resolution blocking an Israel arms sale was rejected 36-63 on April 15, 2026.
Four numbers both sides dispute
| Disputed fact | One side | The other |
|---|---|---|
| Tariff cost to a household | About $2,512 a year, up from $1,745 — Joint Economic Committee Democrats, via the Associated Press | Foreign exporters pay — the administration |
| Deficit effect of the 2025 tax law | No increase — the White House | $2.4tn-$3.4tn, CBO; about $2.5tn-$3.1tn, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget |
| This year's deportations | About 60% of detainees have a criminal record — Homeland Security data via ABC News | 70.6% were never convicted, from the same data — TRAC, Syracuse University, report 767 |
| Gaza death toll since the ceasefire | The Gaza health ministry's toll, as reported | Other counts dispute the figures |
Crime adds a dispute about effect rather than count: the Council on Criminal Justice finds homicides down about 18% in the first half of 2026 across 30 cities, while cautioning this is not evidence of the success or failure of any policy. Rafael Mangual of the Manhattan Institute credits visible policing; the Vera Institute argues troops do not make cities safer.
Where the models disagree, and what the packet holds
The models differ on magnitude and sometimes on sign. On immigration the sign flips outright: the National Academies' 75-year range runs from net cost to net gain, because a snapshot of benefit use and a lifetime present value are different questions.
Provenance changes a figure's weight. The packet retains captured copies of the polls, the bill-status records, the court and news reporting, and the official statements — but not of every analyst or policy-model estimate, which are attributed claims rather than retained evidence. Its own stated limit: local retrieval and hashes, not a witnessed timestamp or proof a source is true.
Comuvia's judgement, labelled as a judgement
Our assessment, not something the record states: we rate this story's complexity high. The facts are mostly public but unusually easy to spin, because on nearly every issue both parties share the stated goal and split on method and blame. Observability is uneven: strong on votes and bill text, weak on the contested magnitudes.
What to re-check before relying on this
Whether any extension of the enhanced ACA subsidies passes before the vote; as of mid-October, none had. The stopgap funding the government expires December 11, 2026. An appeals court was due to hear argument on the District of Columbia Guard deployment, WTOP reported on October 14, 2026. And the Ukraine energy ceasefire remains unconfirmed, with the Institute for the Study of War and Al Jazeera reporting October strikes. Not investment advice.
The companion video uses AI-generated narration and a synthetic presenter; the speaker excerpts are original audio from the officeholders' own official channels. We will cut the story again if the picture changes before Election Day.