Insights · Simulation
Simulation
Scenario modeling and bounded simulation for strategic questions.
Showing 5 of 14 articles
Who Finances the AI Build-Out? Simulating the Leverage Underneath the $500 Billion
NVIDIA and six of the biggest financial firms just wired up over half a trillion dollars of third-party capital for AI factories — much of it circular, off-balance-sheet, and collateralized by the GPUs themselves. Comuvia ran the honest version on Steve Keen's own debt-deflation model: the leverage an economy can carry before it tips falls from 200% of GDP under all-real credit to 175% and 120% as more of that credit turns speculative — and a repricing shock defeats the fiscal rescue for exactly that financial credit. Disclosed dials, relative results, no fabricated bubble number.
DemonstratesA decision-grade, mechanism-level read on a financing structure regulators are only beginning to see — grounded in Steve Keen's own debt-deflation model, with the original contribution being the split between credit that builds productive capacity and credit that only inflates leverage — instead of a headline about an AI bubble with no scoreboard.
Guns, Budgets and Jobs: What a Stock-Flow-Consistent Lab Says About Rearmament
Every rearmament headline comes with an opinion about the economy attached. Comuvia ran the honest version — the same recession, with and without a deficit-financed defense surge, through a fiscal-monetary simulator it owns — and reports the differences between two runs, not a forecast.
DemonstratesA decision-grade, scenario-conditional read on a rearmament question — the trade-off made quantitative and auditable — rather than a headline with an opinion attached.
US Recession Fragility — A Simulation-Backed View
Every house view tells you what will happen; almost none tells you how robust the call is. Comuvia ran a 2026 recession shock against the 2025 US balance sheet through a fiscal-monetary simulator it owns. The Fed cut to zero and bought bonds, and in the central case the private balance sheet mean-reverts — but in ~26.6% of 20,000 plausible parameter paths it still crosses the debt-spiral line. The fragility is in the tail, not the baseline. Reproducible numbers, with every event defined and the uncertainty attached.
DemonstratesA decision-grade, auditable macro read that states its own uncertainty — something a risk committee can budget against, and a benchmark or house-view memo cannot deliver.
The K-Shaped Tail: What an Accounting-Consistent Simulator Says About Concentration Risk
Allocators who carry tail risk don't need another K-shaped chart and an opinion. Comuvia's AI-managed system runs an owned, accounting-consistent simulator and ships the reproducible numbers — including the one lever that measurably bends the curve.
DemonstratesA quantified, auditable answer to which structural fix actually reduces tail risk — not a rhetorical one.
When to model and when to decide
Technology leaders burn budget two ways: weeks of modeling on a question only a decision can settle, or a snap call on a question that needed a model. A three-question triage tells you which side of the line you're on — before you pay for the wrong one.
DemonstratesA reader can tell in one sitting whether their expensive open question needs a model, a decision, or neither — and avoid paying for the wrong instrument.